Off to Jarvis

And we are off! In a few hours, Hanny, Nathan, Pat, Tori, Nadiera, and I will hop on a plane from Honolulu to Kiritimati Island where we will meet the Machias and sail on down to Jarvis Island.

No one knows quite what to expect. We met last night with some of our colleagues at NOAA Coral Reef Ecosystem Division (CRED), who have probably spent more time in the water around Jarvis than anyone else in recent years, and even they are very curious about what is happening on Jarvis under El Nino (see our post below from last week). No one has ever been to Jarvis during El Nino conditions with water as warm as it is now. It's hard to imagine that in 2015 we are still, in a way, exploring parts of the surface ocean.

Cohen Lab members Alice Alpert and Liz Drenkard
investigate a massive coral during the last expedition
to Jarvis Island in 2012.

One hypothesis is that corals on Jarvis are pre-conditioned to have resilience to El Nino. Every 2-7 years El Nino develops and brings unusually warm water around Jarvis, so these corals have felt warm water before. Plus, the proximity of Jarvis to the equator results in upwelling of cool, nutrient-rich water that may feed the corals and allow them to build up fat reserves, which may benefit the corals under thermal stress. On the other hand, this El Nino is like none we have ever seen before, and the water around Jarvis is hotter right now than ever observed.

One thing we do know is that Jarvis is home to a truly amazing and beautiful coral reef ecosystem. How Jarvis fares under climate change over the next decades to century, however, is the big question we are after. Will Jarvis prove resilient, or follow the decline of many other coral reefs in recent years? Observing the Jarvis ecosystem under this present El Nino will give us clues to the resilience of this reef system and its trajectory under future ocean warming. As we set off for Jarvis, spirits are high and the excitement is growing. We are all anxious to find out how the corals are handling the heat!

We will be on Jarvis November 10-17, and unfortunately we will have zero access to internet. Stay tuned for an update when we return.

- Tom DeCarlo
MIT/WHOI Joint Program